Analyst: Chinese economy ‘may bottom after first quarter’
07 January, 2019
The Chinese economy may hit bottom after the first quarter and growth is expected to stabilize in April and May, said Sheng Songcheng, a former adviser to the People’s Bank of China, Yicai.com reported on Sunday night.
Sheng also believes that the moderate decline in house prices is a good thing and that regulation of the real estate sector should not be relaxed.
Ding Shuang, chief economist at Standard Chartered China, thinks stagflation or significant inflation are not likely in 2019, even against the backdrop of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies.
“The inflation [rate] will remain below 2.5% to 3% this year,” said Shuang, who believes a rate of inflation above 3% is a stagflation signal.
Zhu Haibin, chief economist at JP Morgan China, said the government may roll out more stimulus to boost market confidence.
Zhu also estimated that the off-balance business of banks will not contract further this year. The previous crackdown on shadow banking has led to a shrinking volume of off-balance business, hinders M2 growth and makes it difficult for total social financing to rebound, Zhu added.
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