ASEAN summit to handle Myanmar's post-coup crisis

When the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations holds a special summit Saturday (Apr 24) to discuss Myanmar, the regional body will be under as much scrutiny as the general who led the February coup ousting the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi.

Opponents of the junta are furious that ASEAN is welcoming its chief, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, to its meeting in the Indonesian capital Jakarta, arguing that because he seized power by force, he's not Myanmar’s legitimate leader. 

Also weighing heavily against him may be the lethal violence perpetrated by the security forces he commands, in charge of killing a huge selection of largely relaxing protesters and bystanders.

“Min Aung Hlaing, who faces international sanctions for his role in military atrocities and the brutal crackdown on pro-democracy protesters, should not be welcomed at an intergovernmental gathering to handle an emergency he created,” said Brad Adams, Asia director for New York-based Human Rights Watch.

“ASEAN members should instead take this opportunity to impose targeted, monetary sanctions on junta leaders and on businesses that fund the junta, and press the junta release a political detainees, end abuses, and restore the country’s democratically elected government.”

The junta’s foes have promoted the idea that the opposition’s parallel National Unity Government, recently established by the elected lawmakers the army barred from being seated, should represent Myanmar, or at least involve some role in the Jakarta meeting. 

It has not been invited.

“It’s unacceptable that they invite this murderer-in-chief, Min Aung Hlaing, who has just killed a lot more than 730 people in Myanmar, and I think it is very unfortunate that they, over and over, speak to the military generals rather than to the civilian government of Myanmar, which may be the NUG,” says the parallel government’s Minister of International Cooperation, Dr Sasa, who uses one name.

Evan Laksmana, a researcher for Indonesia’s Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank with close government ties, told The Associated Press there is a very practical reason for engaging Min Aung Hlaing in person.

ASEAN recognises “the reality is that one party does the violence, which may be the military, and for that reason that’s why the military has been called to the meeting. Which means this is not at all conferring legitimacy to the military regime", he said.

By talking to the overall, ASEAN hopes to initiate a longer term framework process, starting with ending the violence, that may “hopefully help facilitate dialogue among all of the stakeholders in Myanmar, not only (with) the military regime.”

Skeptics feel ASEAN faces more basic problems in seeking to resolve Myanmar’s crisis. They indicate the divergent interests of the group’s members, its longstanding conventions of seeking consensus and avoiding interference in each other’s affairs and the historic obstinacy of Myanmar’s generals.

One faction in the group, comprising Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, believes the instability engendered by the coup threatens the entire region and also ASEAN’s credibility as a group powerful enough to do something independently of big power influence.

They also point out that the ASEAN Charter - adopted in 2007, 40 years following the group’s founding - includes democracy, human rights, good governance and rule of law as guiding principles.

“Now is a grave time for ASEAN’s much-touted centrality, the idea that ASEAN is a central regional platform for regional dialogue, for promoting peace and stability in the region,” said Professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University. 

He said that conception of ASEAN is currently facing “its most severe, grave challenge” in 53 years of existence.

Member countries with an increase of authoritarian regimes - Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam - see little benefit in paying a lot more than lip service to such principles, and have treated Myanmar’s crisis as its own internal matter.

The Jakarta meeting is a hybrid one, with onsite attendance encouraged but virtual participation by video a choice due to the coronavirus pandemic. 

Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte both announced they'll stay home and send their foreign ministers within their stead, but they are working with serious COVID-19 outbreaks, obscuring any political message within their decisions.

“It is more challenging to communicate on a personal level between your leaders without the leaders being present fully, particularly based on the prime minister of Thailand, whom we believe to really have the best relationship with the current senior general from Myanmar,” observed Indonesia’s Laksmana.

He believes ASEAN has a unique opportunity to engage productively with Myanmar’s ruling junta “because at the moment there is absolutely no other option up for grabs.”

“We haven’t seen any progress from the UN Security Council, for instance. There is absolutely no collective effort by other countries. That is it. This can be a first potential breakthrough for the current crisis,” he told The Associated Press.

UN specialised agencies and authorities have been active in criticising the coup and the junta’s crackdown. UN Special Envoy on Myanmar Christine Schraner Burgener will not take part in ASEAN’s deliberations, but intends to be a part of sideline consultations. The junta has rejected her repeated requests to go to Myanmar.

The Security Council could effectively coordinate actions such as arms embargoes to pressure the junta, but Russia and China, major weapons suppliers to the junta, would veto such moves.

Western nations have already enacted targeted sanctions against members of the junta and businesses providing them with financial support, but Myanmar’s past military governments have successfully stood up to such pressures, and will be likely to do so again, especially with support from Beijing.

ASEAN prefers quiet diplomacy to intimidation, seeking incremental gains. Even obtaining the two Myanmar sides to talk to each other could take the time, acknowledges Laksmana.

“I believe the gravity of the problem on the ground is really as such now that there is absolutely no space and even willingness for dialogue until we end the violence,” he said.

“So I think the first steps is always to what extent can ASEAN facilitate the observance of a humanitarian pause first and the delivery of the humanitarian aid,” he said. Only from then on might a forum be possible where all of the stakeholders could talk.

A Southeast Asian diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity because he's not authorised to talk with the press, said another opening move is in mind. 

This would involve having ASEAN's current chairman, Brunei's Prime Minister Hassanal Bolkiah, happen to be Myanmar for meetings with the military leadership and Suu Kyi’s camp to inspire dialogue. He would go there with the ASEAN Secretary General Lim Jock Hoi - also from Brunei - if the junta gives them the nod.

ASEAN-style diplomacy with Myanmar has borne fruit in the past. The military regime in charge in 2008 was not capable of mounting enough rescue and recovery efforts in the wake of devastating Cyclone Nargis, but refused to start the country to an international aid effort. 

ASEAN took the initiative in offering to open a channel for foreign assistance and the much-needed aid started flowing.