Biden’s group re-evaluates Syria policy but no sign of increased engagement
04 February, 2021
Early signals from the Biden administration suggest the Syrian conflict, which is approaching its 10th year, will never be a priority for the new US team.
But it could be re-evaluated, as time passes running from the diplomatic clock, an ISIS resurgence and fragile ceasefires threatening to dissolve.
The administration of President Joe Biden is America's fourth to handle the Syrian conflict, which includes killed about 400,000 and displaced about 10 million.
Experts and former officials predict continuity for a while but possible policy adjustments when the re-analysis is completed.
William Roebuck, the executive vice president of the Arab Gulf Claims Institute who was simply until last year the US deputy particular envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, expected US policy in Syria to carry for the next couple of months.
“Found in the shorter term I expect continuity,” Mr Roebuck told The National.
"The status quo will probably remain but there is usually significant uncertainty on where things will be headed for this administration on Syria in the longer term."
It is likely that the Biden administration will maintain a small US military presence found in Syria for countering terrorism, even while continuing with sanctions imposed on the Assad regime by previous administrations and Congress.
“The military footprint we now have in Syria is adequate for the job that people are carrying out,” Mr Roebuck said.
The US has about 500 troops in the north-east of the united states.
One location that Mr Roebuck could find changing soon is funding for stabilisation in Syria.
The Trump administration froze a lot more than $230 million that were allocated for stabilising the united states in 2018, and it is likely that the Biden team will unfreeze it.
Different questions, such as for example lifting some sanctions and the continuing future of the US presence in the region, will have to await the re-evaluation by the administration and what Mr Roebuck calls the “bureaucratic design” for the brand new team.
New Team
Senior officials who done Syria in the past joined the administration during the past month.
Brett McGurk, the former US envoy for the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, is currently the White House co-ordinator for the Middle East and North Africa.
US options told The National that Zehra Bell, circumstances Department job diplomat who done the Syria Transition Assistance Response Staff, is expected to get the director for the united states at the National Reliability Council.
Mr McGurk is known for supplying priority to the fight against ISIS. He resigned from the Trump administration after the president’s decision to withdraw from Syria without consulting the military leadership.
He also supported a transitional leadership structure in the north-east and strengthening the Syrian Democratic Forces, which set him on a good collision course with Turkey in the past.
Previous administrations appointed a special envoy for Syria in the past eight years.
Resources told The National that the Biden workforce will observe this tradition but that any such appointment is awaiting an employee shake-up in the STATE DEPT..
Joel Rayburn, the ex - envoy, left the position when Mr Biden was first sworn found in on January 20, and the recent State appointments of deputy assistant secretaries did not include Syria.
Sources said that former ambassador Barbara Leaf, who actually recently joined the National Reliability Council’s Middle East workforce, is a top contender for assistant secretary of status for near eastern affairs.
Steven Heydemann, director of the center East Research programme at Smith University and a non-resident fellow at the Brookings Institute, said the brand new team up to now suggested a possible go back to an Obama-era policy in Syria.
“Finding Colin Kahl [nominee designed for undersecretary of defence to get policy by the Pentagon] and Brett McGurk in significant roles reinforces concerns that we will end up with Obama redux," Mr Heydemann said.
But he likewise said there were differing opinions within the administration over handling Syria.
"We have more senior figures like [US Secretary of Talk about] Tony Blinken, who provides acknowledged the inability of Obama's Syria plan, and Gen Austin [Miller], whose sights on Syria will be largely unknown,” Mr Heydemann said.
In 2019, Mr Blinken, writing for the Brookings Institution, advocated diplomacy that's “supplemented by deterrence”.
“Found in Syria, we rightly sought to avoid another Iraq by not doing too much, but we made the contrary error of doing too little,” he wrote.
Mr Heydemann said the Syrian particular envoy posture, if filled, “will reveal a whole lot about the Biden administration's intentions".
"It could well signal extra assertive diplomatic engagement, which will be welcome.”
Political progress has been nominal in Syria because the UN Security Council adopted resolution 2254 in December 2015, installation of the political path for funds in Syria.
“The US has pushed for implementation of 2254 but hasn't gone much further than that in defining what sort of process or outcome it wants,” Mr Heydemann said.
Lacking such clarity can drag Washington into “getting itself in a reactive standing should the current ceasefire collapse or some other crisis erupt in Syria”.
Diplomatic ticking clock
Emma Beals, a non-resident fellow at the center East Institute, expressed concern that if US diplomatic inaction continues on Syria, it might mean key setbacks on the humanitarian entrance.
“A [US] diplomatic surge on Syria can't wait,” Ms Beals, who is as well an editor at Syria in Context, told The National.
“With the UN Security Council cross-border image resolution extension deadline approaching in July, the confirmations of Linda Thomas-Greenfield as US ambassador to the UN, and [former] ambassador Samantha Electricity at USAid can't come quickly enough,
"Their diplomatic weight will be needed to negotiate an extension with Russia."
She said the deteriorating humanitarian problem across Syria and seemingly intractable issues with the delivery of aid will demand immediate US attention and work with allies.
“Securing long-term ceasefires upon various fronts must be a priority," Ms Beals said.
"As a result is addressing the developing instability in Lebanon and the region, particularly as the financial ramifications of Covid-19 bite and refugee-hosting countries deal with domestic pressures to return refugees.”
Politically, the Syrian regime, backed simply by Russia, is preparing for another election this season that could assure President Bashar Al Assad’s hang on electricity for another seven years. The Assad family has been in power since 1971.
“The US will soon need to work with like-minded allies to guarantee the governments of Syria and Russia are unable to gain ground with their normalisation narrative in the lead-up to the year's presidential election,” Ms Beals said.
The election will be in breach of the gradual political road map setup under UN Secureness Council resolution 2254.
Former US ambassador to Syria Robert Ford recently advocated that the US “strike a package” with Russia on Syria, which would bring about a US withdrawal from the country.
Prior administrations have attempted to accomplish the same but hit problems when it came to Moscow's capability to deliver in Syria.
“While dealing with Russia or Assad via the political process are necessary pieces of negotiating any solution to the conflict, they aren't partners nor may they come to be trusted to implement or perhaps maintain security consistent with US interests,” Ms Beals stated.
“Russia’s willingness or capability to expend political capital to influence Damascus’s behaviour can be overestimated.
"For example, Russia failed to receive the Assad regime's delegation to the constitutional committee to go over constitutional principles last week, despite their having agreed to do so this past year, even after Russia and the other Astana guarantors sent delegations to Geneva during the meeting to attempt to smooth things over.
"Russia as well repeatedly vetoed UNSC resolutions to provide cross-border help to Syria."
Nonetheless it is unclear if the Biden administration has Syria in its top rated priorities to negotiate with allies and adversaries.
The Syrian conflict has not come up in statements about the Biden administration’s calls to stakeholders in the conflict, including Russia.
Mr Biden’s phone to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the assertion said, didn't include discussion on Syria, nor did Mr Blinken’s phone to Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi.
This week’s call between US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and spokesman and chief adviser to the president of Turkey, Ibrahim Kalin, also made no reference to the conflict.
Source: www.thenationalnews.com