Can Joe Biden and the Democrats flip Texas for the very first time since 1976?
15 October, 2020
Record early voting turnout in Texas this week has Democrats hopeful that their candidate, Joe Biden, could for the first time since Jimmy Carter in 1976 turn the state blue in November.
The most recent data from the Texas Secretary of State’s office shows 16.9 million Texans are registered to vote in this election, a growth of just one 1.8 million in 2016.
The Lone Star state started early voting on Tuesday and is setting records in the first two days.
A lot more than 128,000 persons in Harris County, the state's largest, voted on Tuesday, almost double the 67,741 who resulted in on the first day in 2016.
By 3 pm on Wednesday, the Harris County clerk tweeted that another 70,000 had voted.
In Travis County in Austin, which favors the Democrats, 97 percent of eligible voters are registered to cast their ballot.
Ryan Bohl, an Austin resident, and voter described the mood as very enthusiastic in Travis county.
“There is obviously very high enthusiasm in Travis county to vote,” Mr. Bohl told The National.
"I've heard a lot about long lines and the county official who spoke if you ask me said I should be prepared to work the polls well past closing should there still be a line."
He said the mood was a lot more extreme than 2018 when Democratic Congressman Beto O’Rourke almost unseated Republican Senator Ted Cruz and lost by only 2.5 %.
This is the closest margin the Democrats have recorded in Texas in decades.
“I have seen a good share of Joe Biden and Donald Trump advertisements on TV here, which implies that both campaigns see Texas as shared,” Mr. Bohl said.
The pandemic, police reforms, the economy, and immigration are all issues at play in the Texas election.
A poll by Morning Consult last week showed US President Donald Trump leading Mr. Biden in the state by only two points.
Mr. Trump won the state in 2016 by nine points against Hillary Clinton, and former Republican nominee Mitt Romney beat Barack Obama by 16 points in 2012.
Experts say Texas’s 38 electoral votes can offer the Democrats a landslide victory on November 3, but only if they outperformed the polls and drove turnout among key demographics.
Galen Druke, of the election statistics website FiveThirtyEight, described Texas as a “majority-minority” declare that is ripe for the Democrats in 2020.
"Texas could be a southern state, it might be a republican state, but it’s highly urbanized,” Mr. Druke said in a recent podcast.
He said the state was 41 % white, 40 % Hispanic, 13 % black, and 5 % Asian.
Mr. Druke said a higher turnout, especially among minorities, suburban voters, and college-educated whites, could help Mr. Biden to outperform the polls.
“In recent elections, polls have underestimated Democrats by two to three points," he said.
"I wouldn’t be shocked if Mr. Biden eventually ends up winning the state."
Texas Republican Governor Greg Abbott won a legal battle this week limiting the number of drop-off sites in each county to one.
In Harris county where 4.7 million persons live, that meant longer car queues.
But these measures have not stifled the turnout up to now and can at least mean a close cause in Texas.
Source: www.thenationalnews.com
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