China to leapfrog US as world's biggest market by 2028: Think tank
26 December, 2020
China will overtake america to be the world's biggest market in 2028, five years sooner than previously estimated as a result of contrasting recoveries of the two countries from the COVID-19 pandemic, a think tank said.
"For some time, an overarching topic of global economics provides been the economical and soft power struggle between the USA and China," the Center for Economics and Organization Research said in an annual survey published on Saturday (Dec 26).
"The COVID-19 pandemic and corresponding monetary fallout possess certainly tipped this rivalry in China's favour."
The CEBR said China's "skilful operations of the pandemic", with its strict early lockdown, and hits to long-term growth in the West meant China's relative monetary performance had improved.
China looked place for average financial growth of 5.7 per cent a year from 2021 to 2025 before slowing to 4.5 per cent a year from 2026 to 2030.
While the USA was more likely to have a solid post-pandemic rebound in 2021, its growth would slow to 1 1.9 % a year between 2022 and 2024, and to at least one 1.6 per cent after that.
Japan would remain the world's third-biggest economy, in dollar terms, until the early 2030s when it might be overtaken by India, pressing Germany straight down from fourth to fifth.
The United Kingdom, the fifth-most significant economy by the CEBR's measure, would slip to sixth place from 2024.
However, despite a hit in 2021 from its exit from the European Union's single industry, British GDP in dollars was forecast to be 23 % higher than France's simply by 2035, helped by Britain's lead in the progressively important digital economy.
Europe accounted for 19 % of output in the most notable 10 global economies found in 2020 but which will fall to 12 % by 2035, or perhaps lower when there is an acrimonious split between the EU and Britain, the CEBR said.
It also said the pandemic's impact on the global overall economy was likely to show up found in higher inflation, not slower expansion.
"We see an monetary cycle with rising rates of interest in the mid-2020s," it said, posing a problem for governments which have borrowed massively to fund their response to the COVID-19 crisis.
"However the underlying trends that have been accelerated by this aspect to a good greener and extra tech-based world just as we transfer to the 2030s."
Source: www.channelnewsasia.com