China to soon release details of roadmap to ‘energy revolution’ as climate envoy defends emissions strategy

China’s special envoy for climate change has defended the country’s plans for emissions reduction, while providing a preview of a soon-to-be-released strategic report on how it will reach a carbon emissions peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.

In a virtual keynote address on Tuesday (Aug 3), Mr Xie Zhenhua laid out details of a 10-point plan for China. He told a panel that the full strategy will be released soon ahead of global climate discussions at COP26 in Glasgow.

They included steps to “promote an energy revolution”, through strict controls of fossil fuel consumption and the reduction of thermal coal and other polluting energy sources in “an orderly manner”.

Nuclear, hydropower, wind, solar, photovoltaic, ocean, thermal energy will all be developed further, while electric grids face upgrades, transportation systems will become green and low carbon, buildings retrofitted for efficiencies and green finance and carbon trading expanded. 

Low carbon construction, industrial upgrades, emphasis on developing a circular economy and nature-based solutions will also be priorities under the Chinese government's policy.

“These have basically clarified the path for China to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality,” Mr Xie said.

“To achieve carbon peak and neutrality is a solemn commitment made by China to the world. It means we’re going to have a profound economic and social transformation. This is not something that can be easily done. 

He added: “The goal of achieving carbon neutrality may be a difficult task. We’re going to face huge challenges and will require tremendous effort. Nevertheless, our country has made remarkable achievements and it also has a certain competitive edge." 

“It is impossible to achieve these goals with only one method. We have to take into consideration different situations of cities and rural areas in order to ensure that the (emissions peak) target can be achieved before 2030, but in an orderly manner,” he said.

During the session, Mr Todd Stern, the former US special envoy for climate change, and Lord Adair Turner, the chairman of the Energy Transitions Commission of UK said that China must take more actions this decade, to avoid the world’s climate change targets becoming unattainable. They also argued that if China’s emissions continued to rise - possibly until 2030 - it would be damaging for global climate efforts.

“China has a history of delivering on what it says. At the same time I think that China needs to do more in the current decade that we’re in,” Mr Stern said.

“What China does or does not do at home has a huge impact not only on its own future but on the entire world’s.”

He argued that it was imperative that countries “go all out” to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, a more ambitious goal than explicitly laid out in the Paris Agreement. 

“China has so far not announced plans to do enough in the current decade, in my judgement. Peaking by 2030 in China cannot get the job done.

“The idea of needing to go all out to hold temperature rise to 1.5 degrees is not some kind of exaggeration. It’s not some kind of dream of extreme environmentalists. It’s something we have to do," said Mr Stern.

“I have no doubt that China has a very sincere rationale for its current plans. I also think its current plans are difficult. But still, more can be done. The balance needs to be recalibrated in China, in my judgement,” he added.

The chairman of the Energy Transitions Commission added that China’s ability develop and to install new technology gave rise to optimism that objectives could be achieved faster in the coming years. 

Such innovations could not come too soon, he said, given the spate of calamities being experienced across the globe in recent times, including deadly floods, heatwaves and wildfires. 

“The world has left our response to climate change too late. But the good news to balance the worrying news is that we now have the technologies available to achieve net global reductions far faster and cheaper than we dared hope ten years ago."

However, he said if China continued on a path of increased emissions this decade, the world faces “a “real catastrophe” where warming could top 2 degrees by 2050. 

China has stated that its climate actions will adhere to global targets, with Mr Xie noting on Tuesday that a 1.5 degree rise was preferable but not guaranteed.

He said it was time for countries to stop haggling over such targets and instead take action to deliver outcomes for humanity.

“We shouldn’t waste more time discussing whether it’s 1.5 or 2. We need actions to achieve the best results. We don’t need more specific lowering of the target. We have to understand the different situations in different countries,” he said.

“All of humanity is in the same boat. We should be working together and try our best to put in all our efforts. We have to cooperate because no single nation should do it by themselves.”

He laid out the steep challenges that China faces in transforming its economy, in which fast GDP growth remains a key priority alongside poverty reduction and where coal energy and heavy industry have been important pillars. 

“Some countries ask if China can do better or accelerate its pace. We have challenges. We are trying our best,” he said. “Time is of the essence. The coming decade will be of critical importance.”

He noted that thermal coal, which is expected to remain the dominant generation source for years to come, was “impossible” to switch off overnight. 

Renewable energy installations have already increased rapidly in China but Mr Xie said it would take time to “step by step” change the country’s power mix.

The special envoy also reaffirmed that China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal would not only include carbon emissions, but other types of pollutants including methane and hydrofluorocarbons, a considerable addition that widens the scope of China’s emission reduction targets. 

The panel discussion was organised by the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology and Our Hong Kong Foundation.