Despite steady popularity, Jokowi’s COVID-19 policies raise questions about decisiveness and communication: Analysts

As Indonesian President Joko Widodo marks the first year of his second term in office on Tuesday (Oct 20), analysts interviewed by CNA have raised questions over his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, especially with regards to taking decisive action and public communication.

However, the fact that his popularity ratings have held steady indicates an awareness among the general public that the current uncertainties aren't unique to Indonesia.

Jokowi, as the president is popularly known, seemed to primarily prioritise the economy in his first 100 days in office.

When COVID-19 struck the united states in March, the government appeared to be torn between prioritising public health insurance and limiting the harm to the economy. This may have resulted in too little decisive and well-communicated approaches in managing the pandemic, said analysts.

However, those interviewed also remarked that it isn't fair to solely judge the existing administration based about how it handled COVID-19, since no country was fully ready to mitigate it.

BALANCING PUBLIC HEALTH INSURANCE AND THE ECONOMY

Those interviewed noted that there were gaps in Mr Widodo’s handling of the pandemic, with Indonesia now having the highest number of COVID-19 cases in Southeast Asia.

Political analyst Yunarto Wijaya from think-tank Charta Politika said: “Whenever we look back, Jokowi appeared to try to balance out between prioritising the people’s health insurance and the economy concurrently …

“Achieved it work? I cannot say that it worked. Nonetheless it is a major question for the reason that number of infections has not flattened, it is definately not the second wave. When other countries are discussing the next wave, we remain in the first.” 

He noted that the Jokowi administration only had four months of “honeymoon period” from being sworn in before pandemic reached Indonesian shores. 

“We know that the whole world is not in a normal condition … We see that countries are bound to experience a slowdown, deviate from their target, and also Indonesia's economic achievements aren't that bad. Why? Because Indonesia dares to take a position by trying to balance between your economic and health sectors,” Mr Wijaya said.

Public policy expert Agus Pambagio added that the government’s effort to balance between public health insurance and the economy may have led to too little decisive action.

“Everyone is confused about how precisely to take care of the pandemic … We don’t have a company determination, whether to prioritise health first or the economy. Because the beginning, I've always said resolve the health problems first. But the government decided to focus on both and the result is that after seven months, we can not decrease and even flatten the (COVID-19) curve,” said the expert from think-tank PH & H Public Policy Interest Group.

Mr Wijaya noted that the current government cannot be compared directly with previous regimes, given the severity of the pandemic.

In fact, it could not even be fair to compare Mr Widodo’s performance previously year along with his achievements in 2015, the first year of his presidency, he added.

JOKOWI’S POPULARITY HOLDS STEADY

Regardless of the COVID-19 situation, according to analyze from Charta Politika, the president’s popularity has been unaffected at around 60 %.

Mr Wijaya explained this is due to Jokowi’s decision to sign a government regulation that paved just how for regions to impose a partial lockdown to curb COVID-19 instead of a full lockdown.

The large-scale social restrictions, as the partial lockdown was known domestically, gave a legal basis for regions to shut down non-essential services while still allowing essential businesses to use and persons to commute.

In his first term, Mr Joko gave freehold land titles to people, among other programmes.

Mr Wijaya said that this measure was favoured by persons in the suburbs since it didn't affect their lives too drastically.

A survey from pollster Indikator Politik Indonesia released over the weekend showed that 68 % of the general public was content with Jokowi’s performance, while Voxpopuli Research Center released a survey earlier this month which showed that the public’s satisfaction towards Jokowi was 64.7 per cent. 

Mr Edbert Gani, a political economist from think-tank Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said that predicated on surveys, a lot more than 50 % of Indonesians feel that the economy is in a weak state.

“But what's interesting is that the trust level towards Jokowi hasn't decreased drastically.”

He said that is unusual as rely upon the government usually decreases as the economy is regarded as underperforming. 

“This means that persons understand that that is a global situation. The existing uncertainties aren't unique to Indonesia, nevertheless they are shared globally,” he said.

MORE COULD BE DONE WITH REGARDS TO SOCIAL ASSISTANCE

Indonesia’s economic growth has been stagnant at around 5 % in the last couple of years, but the restrictions put in location to curb COVID-19 has caused the economy to contract 5.32 % in the second quarter of 2020.

It had been the first contraction Indonesia has observed in more than twenty years and the 3rd quarter, which ended on Sep 30, is likely to also show negative growth.

Analysts said that more could possibly be done when it comes to assistance for the persons and addressing the debt burden.

Mr Gani said: “COVID-19 has opened the long structural problems of Indonesia. The monetary structure is much dependent on the informal sector which has led the social security system to be particularly vulnerable where many personnel aren't protected socially.

“Which is a weakness for a long shock like a pandemic. Our system is not ready to handle non-natural disasters,” Mr Gani told CNA.

The middle class is very vulnerable, he said, citing an increasing number of people registering for the pre-employment card programme which is intended to provide training for about 5.6 million Indonesians whose livelihoods have already been hit by the pandemic. 

One programme which appears to become more effective in temporarily saving people’s livelihood is direct social assistance, noted Mr Gani.

He said even though insufficient reliable data has hindered the government’s effort to utilise the programme fully, it has at least reached some people, especially those people who have been classified as poor.

Mr Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara, an economist from the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF), expressed concern over the increased debt obligations.

The federal government has issued Global Bonds of US$ 4.3 billion this season which will mature in 2050 or includes a tenure of 30.5 years.

“This means that the federal government is inheriting debt to future generations,” Mr Adhinegara noted.

Indonesia has been listed as the 7th highest among middle and low-income countries in external debt owing US$ 402 billion, in line with the World Bank’s recent International Debt Statistics 2021 report.

The country’s external debt obligations is higher than Argentina, South Africa and Thailand.

Mr Adhinegara also claimed that the government’s economic stimulus packages are relatively small, at 4.2 % of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). On the other hand, neighbouring Malaysia’s and Singapore’s packages are more than 10 % of their GDP.

BACKLASH OVER JOB CREATION LAW UNDERLINES DEPENDENCE ON COMMUNICATION

Earlier this month, the parliament issued a Job Creation Law, which was thought to create more jobs amid the economical slowdown.

However, the law was resisted by staff and students, who said that certain rights would be recinded. A number of the protests, including in Jakarta, threatened to spiral uncontrollable.

Mr Wijaya of Charta Politika said it is crucial to understand that Jokowi intended the omnibus law to be his legacy. The Indonesian leader has been preparing the bottom since his first term and wanted to cut red tape and create more jobs.

However, the initiative fell short in terms of communicating clearly to the general public what the brand new law is centered on, he said.

“He should call the persons so as to communicate better. Not only the ministers or the party elites,” Mr Wijaya asserted.

Mr Pambagio, the general public policy expert, concurred.

THE WORK Creation Law revises a lot more than 70 existing law and regulations. The government claimed it could make it simpler to do business, but didn't engage all stakeholders affected. 

He noted that the government does not have a clear spokesperson for the law, thus it had been not communicated well to the general public.

Mr Widodo has personally defended the law and said that the recent protests were fuelled by “disinformation”.

“I’ll give as an example, there is information that says the provincial minimum wage, the regency minimum wage, and the provincial sectoral minimum wage will be eliminated. This is not true because simple truth is the provincial minimum wage still exists," he said.

Analysts believe the government must be more transparent moving forward.

Mr Wijaya and Mr Pambagio noted that as public focus shifts to the option of the COVID-19 vaccine, the federal government has to be more transparent regarding communication.

“The communication to the general public must be clear. Whatever the policy is, that’s up to the federal government ... Whatever steps should be taken, please communicate it to the general public. It is best than hiding it or not discussing it. People will be confused, and it could lead to chaos,” said Mr Pambagio.