Economists hold Singapore’s GDP forecast for 2020 at -6%, MAS survey shows
09 December, 2020
Individual sector economists polled by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) expect the economy to contract by 6 % this season, unchanged from the prior survey published three months ago.
The economy will probably shrink by 4.5 % year-on-year in the final three months of the entire year, following a smaller-than-expected decline of 5.8 per cent in the 3rd quarter, in line with the central bank’s most recent quarterly survey released on Wednesday (Dec 9).
For the expected recovery in 2021, the economists are securing to their earlier estimate of 5.5 per cent growth. That is within the Government’s forecast range of four to six 6 % growth for next time.
Sent out in Nov 23, the MAS study received 23 responses from personal sector watchers of the local economy. Survey findings do not reflect the central bank’s sights or forecasts, it stated.
Across the key macroeconomic indicators, making had the largest upgrade in conditions of a full-year outlook. Economists today anticipate the sector to broaden 5.8 % in 2020, up from 2.3 % within the last survey.
Smaller contractions were also predicted for low cost and retail trade, in addition to accommodation and food offerings.
But forecasts for different indicators were gloomier, with structure downgraded sharply. The sector is currently seen declining 36.2 % for the entire year, in comparison to 23 per cent in the last survey.
Additional forecasts that worsened slightly include personal consumption, which is expected to shrink 13.4 % compared with the previous median forecast of an 11.8 per cent decline.
Growth expectations were also trimmed slightly for financing and insurance, together with non-oil domestic exports.
There was hook pick-up in conditions of unemployment, with a median forecast of 3.7 % weighed against 3.5 per cent previously.
A further deterioration in today's COVID-19 outbreak continuing to top the respondents' set of downside challenges to the economy, accompanied by worries over insufficient stimulus globally and an escalation in US-China trade tensions.
Conversely, a highly effective containment of the pandemic through the widespread global deployment of a vaccine was the very best upside driver. Others are the reopening of borders to foreign travel, a stronger-than-expected efficiency in making and fiscal stimulus to aid Singapore’s recovery.
Source: www.channelnewsasia.com
TAG(s):