India administers one billion Covid-19 jabs but still faces uphill battle

India has administered one billion doses of Covid-19 vaccine, a key milestone in an inoculation campaign that still faces significant challenges.

The nation hit the landmark on Thursday, according to data from India’s Cowin app. But while 51 per cent of the population has received at least one shot, only 21 per cent are fully vaccinated with both the doses, underscoring a wide disparity, according to Bloomberg’s vaccine tracker.

The gap means there are large swathes of India’s population that could be still vulnerable to Covid-19 infections, potentially triggering outbreaks in a country that earlier this year experienced one of the world’s most devastating virus waves. Restrictions on movement across India have been lifted in the past few months as the number of new daily infections has abated, dipping below 15,000 from record highs of more than 400,000 in early May.

Although the Indian government aims to vaccinate all adults by the end of the year, there is a worrying divide among those vaccinated.

Health experts attribute the skewed vaccination statistics to a number of factors, including the relatively long three-month gap India mandates between doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine – the main shot being used. The government is also yet to launch a child immunisation drive that would cover about 40 per cent of the population.

Hesitancy to get a second shot is a potential issue in India’s vast countryside, especially as new infections dip, chipping away at the sense of urgency. In many rural areas, handouts in government-sponsored welfare programmes were tied to having just one shot, while no such benefits are attached to getting the second dose on time. Moreover, some rural residents need to travel long distances to gain access to vaccinations.

Despite this, corporate leaders in India have praised the turnaround of an immunisation drive that was slow to get going, first due to hesitancy among those initially eligible for vaccination and later due to supply shortages.

“Our vaccination program has indeed picked up pace,” Sanjiv Mehta, the head of Hindustan Unilever, India’s largest consumer goods company, said on Tuesday. “We are hopeful that as a nation we can avoid further disruption from the spread of the virus.”

While experts had predicted India would see a third wave of infections in September and October, official daily case tallies have fallen to lows last seen during a lull at the beginning of 2021.

India’s states have cautiously eased movement restrictions and curfews, with malls, cinemas, gyms and swimming pools newly reopened in recent weeks.

“We expect economic activity to recover further, driven by festive season, pick-up in vaccination and the likely increase in government spending,” Srinivasan Vaidyanathan, chief financial officer of India’s most valuable lender, HDFC Bank, said.

Still, scientists and government officials continue to urge caution, with India in a months-long festival season that started in September. Complacency around virus containment measures during this period last year is seen as contributing to the deadly wave in 2021.