Japan at 'crossroads' on COVID-19 outbreak, expert warns
28 February, 2020
Japan reaches a "crossroads" in preventing a major coronavirus outbreak and may need to reconsider the Olympics if domestic transmissions aren't brought under control, an expert advising the government has warned.
Norio Ohmagari, an infectious disease specialist, told AFP within an interview that he believes measures being taken by the government can still avoid the virus from spreading more widely, but that another three weeks will be critical.
"We are actually on the crossroads for the containment of the COVID-19 or the ... outbreak of the COVID-19 in your country," said Ohmagari, director of the department of infectious diseases at Japan's National Center for Global Health insurance and Medicine.
Japan has confirmed at least 186 domestic infections, including three deaths since the outbreak began, and the government has come under great pressure for a comparatively hands-off approach.
But Ohmagari, who helps advise the government, defended measures including requesting, but not ordering, the cancellation of major events and encouraging teleworking and off-peak commuting.
"If we continue with what we are doing now we do have (the) significant likelihood for the containment or the elimination of the COVID-19," he said.
He conceded however there continues to be significant uncertainty, which includes cast a shadow as Tokyo gears up to host the Olympics from July.
Ohmagari said he'd want to see domestic transmissions of the virus brought in order before the Games.
"We have to start to see the situation at least three weeks from now," he said.
"If we can contain the secondary transmission within the country... I think that's a very good sign, and it's really an excellent signal for us to choose 'go' for the Olympics and Paralympics."
But if infections are continuing domestically, authorities will face a "big, big decision."
"If there is a substantial outbreak or, I really do not hope this to occur but, a pandemic of this sort of infectious disease, we really have to think about holding this kind of large event, could it be feasible or not?"
BOAT QURANTINE WAS 'NOT PERFECT'
The government's handling of the crisis has come under scrutiny internationally and domestically, with opposition lawmakers questioning the relatively low number of tests administered in Japan - just over 1,000 nationwide, in comparison to 57,000 in South Korea.
Ohmagari acknowledged that "limiting the amount of tests makes grasping the real number of instances impossible," but said the tests cannot detect asymptomatic cases anyway.
"Catching all the persons who are experiencing this virus is impossible" he said. "We are able to see the trend."
Japan in addition has faced significant criticism because of its handling of a cruise liner placed in quarantine after a former passenger contracted the virus.
More than 700 persons up to speed the Diamond Princess have up to now tested positive for the virus, with multiple new cases emerging as the ship was in quarantine and even among passengers allowed off the boat after primarily testing negative.
"The process with the quarantine is not perfect," Ohmagari said.
"I feel that is an undeniable fact, we are actually seeing it."
But he said the federal government had faced a hard situation with limited capacity to conduct a quarantine onshore and pressure never to put those on board through a second isolation period.
And he said there is no evidence yet that passengers from the ship had infected others after leaving the boat.
"We need to see what goes on within the next coming one or two weeks ... if the secondary infections from the passengers of the cruise happen, we have to really think about any of it," he said.
"These kind of ways may have not been perfect."
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