Japan's fractured opposition unites as Suga set to achieve success PM Abe
09 September, 2020
Eight years after Japan's Democratic Party was ousted and started out unravelling, opposition groups are once again unifying for an over-all election that could come soon, nonetheless they face an uphill battle to dent the existing ruling bloc's performance.
The drive to unite has taken on new urgency as the dominant Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) prepares to pick a fresh leader on Sep 14 after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said last month he would resign because of an illness.
Japan's centre-left opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), will merge with almost all of its former colleagues in the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) in a few days after picking a new leader on Thursday.
The two groups, and also a batch of unaffiliated opposition MPs, emerged when the Democratic Party imploded in 2017 before an over-all election that the LDP won handily.
The newly merged party, to be formally launched on Sep 15, could face an early test.
Abe's lieutenant, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, is likely to win the LDP race, nearly assuring he becomes premier because of the party's majority in parliament.
Suga and the LDP have previously gotten a bump in voter surveys, and speculation is mounting that he'll swiftly call an over-all election.
A solid performance by the LDP would boost Suga's likelihood of winning a complete three-year term after finishing Abe's tenure.
"Inside the LDP, everyone knows it (support rates) won't be this high again," said Steven Reed, a professor emeritus at Chuo University. Support for the LDP had increased to 41 per cent from 33 % in a recent Yomiuri newspaper survey, weighed against 4 % for the CDPJ.
Abe's almost eight-year rule, which made him Japan's longest-serving prime minister, was along with the fragmented opposition because of Japan's electoral system, where most constituencies elect a single person in parliament to the low house.
Which means the ruling party benefits if several opposition candidates compete. Within the last lower-house election, in 2017, the CDPJ won just 54 seats, a fraction of the two-thirds majority garnered by the LDP and its own smaller coalition partner.
The new opposition party, which will probably be led by CDPJ chief Yukio Edano, could have 149 incumbents out of a combined 710 lawmakers in parliament's two chambers, weighed against the LDP's almost 400.
"If a party has only 50-60 members, regardless if it speaks of taking power, it's a tale," Jun Azumi, who handles parliamentary affairs for the CDPJ, told Reuters in an interview. "For the reason that sense, to create a major group is incredibly significant."
The merged party will probably cooperate with japan Communist Party in fielding candidates, a stance that helps its chances but may put off some of the DPP's more conservative members.
Azumi said the new party would demand reducing the 10 % sales tax to boost the coronavirus-stricken economy and ending reliance on nuclear power, a stance sharply at odds with the LDP's position despite the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster.
The centrist Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), founded in 1996, has long struggled with internal dissent.
"Opposition parties aren't even near being united," said Meiko Nakabayashi, a professor and former DPJ lawmaker. "They say they will be, but it's really doubtful."
The Democrats ousted the long-dominant LDP in 2009 2009 but after a troubled 3 years, lost power.
Katsuya Okada, who led the DPJ from 2004 to 2005, said unifying members was a major challenge.
"What I struggled with most was to pull the party together," Okada said. "While respecting diversity, each member must bear in mind the value of coming together ... under a chosen leader."
Source:
TAG(s):