Logistics to pressure Ukraine crop exports, lift prices
18 November, 2021
Railway disruptions in Ukraine are expected to pressure the country's crop exports this month and support prices until the end of this year, trading firm Inerco said.
Ukrainian railway rates have more than doubled this month amid reduced availability, which is slowing the delivery of crops from farms to port terminals, Inerco chief trader Oksana Karabin said at the global grain conference in Geneva today.
This implies Ukrainian grain and oilseeds exports may not hit a record high this month, as initially expected, Karabin said. Ukrainian crop shipments were forecast to rise further from previous records held after July this year, as the country's bumper corn output is close to completion this month.
But exports are now anticipated to total around 6.5mn t in November — nearly 150,000t below the previous high recorded in September.
Railway disruptions are expected to persist next month and could only ease in January, Karabin told Argus on the sidelines of the conference.
Meanwhile, logistics problems could further support cpt prices in Ukraine's local market and fob export prices next month, according to Karabin.
Ukrainian wheat prices have risen to new records this month both on a cpt and fob basis amid tightening fundamentals globally. But delivery disruptions have further supported prices of Ukrainian crops compared with their Russian equivalent.
Logistics have also supported Ukrainian corn prices this month despite a more relaxed supply-demand balance of the crop compared with wheat. Argus last assessed Ukraine's spot corn product yesterday at $272/t and $282.50/t on a cpt and fob basis, respectively, up by around $9-10/t on the week.
Ukrainian railway rates have more than doubled this month amid reduced availability, which is slowing the delivery of crops from farms to port terminals, Inerco chief trader Oksana Karabin said at the global grain conference in Geneva today.
This implies Ukrainian grain and oilseeds exports may not hit a record high this month, as initially expected, Karabin said. Ukrainian crop shipments were forecast to rise further from previous records held after July this year, as the country's bumper corn output is close to completion this month.
But exports are now anticipated to total around 6.5mn t in November — nearly 150,000t below the previous high recorded in September.
Railway disruptions are expected to persist next month and could only ease in January, Karabin told Argus on the sidelines of the conference.
Meanwhile, logistics problems could further support cpt prices in Ukraine's local market and fob export prices next month, according to Karabin.
Ukrainian wheat prices have risen to new records this month both on a cpt and fob basis amid tightening fundamentals globally. But delivery disruptions have further supported prices of Ukrainian crops compared with their Russian equivalent.
Logistics have also supported Ukrainian corn prices this month despite a more relaxed supply-demand balance of the crop compared with wheat. Argus last assessed Ukraine's spot corn product yesterday at $272/t and $282.50/t on a cpt and fob basis, respectively, up by around $9-10/t on the week.