Merkel’s fate in SPD hands as members vote
18 February, 2018
Germany’s Social Democrats start campaigning Saturday ahead of a party referendum that spells the last threat to Chancellor Angela Merkel’s hopes of forming a new government, five months after inconclusive elections.
In a vote expected to be tight, the more than 460,000 members of the deeply divided center-left SPD will cast their ballots on a plan to enter a new coalition as junior partners to Merkel’s conservatives.
The vote, which starts on Tuesday, comes as the 153-year-old labor party’s ratings are in freefall, with the latest polls giving it just 16 percent support — only one point ahead of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
If the SPD rank-and-file give the thumbs up in the results to be announced on March 4, veteran leader Merkel will likely launch her fourth-term government by late March.
If they vote no, Germans will probably head back to the polls for snap elections, prolonging the political limbo in Europe’s biggest economy and threatening the end of Merkel’s 12-year reign.
A tense SPD leadership hopes that the restive party troops will back their plans for a new “grand coalition,” dubbed “GroKo,” despite deep-seated fears the party will suffer further in the shadow of Merkel.
Polls now suggest two-thirds of SPD voters support another right-left alliance, but the mood of active party members is hard to gauge.
Both camps are set to criss-cross the country from Saturday, when the SPD’s designated next leader Andrea Nahles and caretaker chief Olaf Scholz will speak in the northern city of Hamburg.
Few dare to make any predictions about the ballot given the volatile mood in the party, which scored a historic low of 20.5 percent in Sept. 24 elections and has been ruptured by harsh infighting.
The party’s youth and left wings are driving a concerted #NoGroKo campaign, backed by some regional chapters.