North Korea to stage huge parade despite COVID-19 shutdown
08 October, 2020
Eight months into a strict, coronavirus-triggered border shutdown, nuclear-armed North Korea is widely likely to stage an attention-grabbing display of its latest & most advanced weaponry at a mass military parade in Pyongyang on Saturday (Oct 10).
The cavalcade will mark the 75th anniversary of the ruling Workers' Party and satellite imagery on the respected 38North website suggests it may be huge.
"It is rather clear they are preparing for a major one," Vincent Brooks, former commander folks Forces Korea (USFK), told an Atlantic Council conference.
Thousands of goose-stepping soldiers will march through Kim Il Sung Square, named for North Korea's founder, beneath the gaze of his grandson Kim Jong Un, the 3rd member of the family to rule the country.
A procession of progressively larger armoured vehicles and tanks will observe, culminating with whatever missiles Pyongyang really wants to put on show.
That will be based upon the message it really wants to send.
As tensions mounted in April 2017 giant canisters big enough to hold intercontinental ballistic missiles - which North Korea had yet to check at that time - rumbled through the square, sending shockwaves through the analyst community.
But in September 2018, with diplomatic processes in full swing among Pyongyang, Washington and Seoul, the ICBMs were conspicuous by their absence - a reticence welcomed by US President Donald Trump.
Relations now are more fraught.
Nuclear negotiations between Pyongyang and Washington have been deadlocked because the collapse of the Hanoi summit in February this past year.
North Korea is widely believed to have continued to build up its arsenal - which it says it requires to safeguard itself from a US invasion - throughout the discussions.
Towards the end of December, Kim threatened to show a "new strategic weapon".
Analysts anticipate a fresh submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) or an ICBM capable of striking the united states mainland to be put on show - maybe even one with multiple re-entry vehicle capacities - but say North Korea will tread carefully in order to avoid jeopardising its chances with Washington.
And despite speculation of a potential "October Surprise" prior to the US election on Nov 3, they say a genuine missile launch is unlikely.
"Showing it in the parade rather than testing it could be a nonprovocative method of showcasing it," said Jenny Town, a fellow at the Stimson Center.
'MASKS AND MISSILES'
Saturday's anniversary comes throughout a difficult year for North Korea as the coronavirus pandemic and recent storms add pressure to the heavily sanctioned country.
The impoverished nation - whose crumbling health system would struggle to cope with a significant virus outbreak - hasn't confirmed an individual case of the disease which has swept the world since first emerging in China, North Korea's key ally.
Pyongyang closed its border with China in January to try to prevent contamination, which USFK Commander Robert Abrams said effectively "accelerated the effects" of monetary sanctions imposed on North Korea.
And last week Pyongyang's troops shot dead a South Korean citizen who had drifted into its waters, apparently as a coronavirus precaution, triggering outrage in the South.
The incident sparked a rare apology from Kim himself.
The parade will aim to send the domestic audience a message that "regardless of the monetary hardships they face, they are a militarily strong nation", Town said.
But Harry Kazianis of the guts for National Interest warned that with thousands of people involved it could become a "deadly superspreader-like event" if the coronavirus was present in Pyongyang unless "extreme precautions" were used.
And such precautionary measures seemed "pretty unlikely", he added. "Clearly masks and missiles don't mix."
'POTEMKIN VILLAGE'
The tightened coronavirus border controls also have hampered construction of the flagship Pyongyang General Hospital, whose opening has been flagged within the 75th anniversary celebrations.
North Korea has long used giant infrastructure projects to try to burnish the government's credibility, and Kim has berated officials several times over its progress.
Photos carried by state media in recent weeks show focus on the building's shiny white exterior is in its final phases, but analysts remain sceptical.
The hospital is probable definately not being "functional", said Soo Kim of RAND Corporation.
"North Korea lacks the medical technology, skills, infrastructure, and manpower to adequately provide legitimate health care to the populace," Kim added.
"So the hospital can be another fixture of North Korea's 'Potemkin village'."
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