Rare drop in carbon emissions a potential catalyst for India's renewable energy ambitions

India has recorded its first year-on-year drop in carbon emissions at the national level for practically 40 years, an outcome that analysts say will strengthen the government’s push to phase out dirty fossil fuels.

In a country increasingly accustomed to heavily polluted air, the global COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in rare blue skies, showcasing the possible future great things about greater action on climate change.

With heavy industries shuttered, the transport sector barely operational and demand for electricity plummeting, the country’s CO2 emissions fell by around 15 per cent through the month of March and a likely 30 % in April, according to an analysis by the Center for Research on Energy and CLIMATE (CREA).

Overall, emissions were reported to be down 1 % through the fiscal year ending March, compared to 2019. The last time negative growth was experienced was back 1982, when emission levels were a fraction of what they are today.

While India had been on course to slow the rise of carbon emissions this year - partly because of its progress on installing cleaner energy infrastructure - the unexpected health crisis has magnified the improvements and given momentum to an already fast growing renewables sector.

During March and April, coal-fired generation slumped significantly. Concurrently, renewables output increased by 6.4 % in March and saw a slight decrease of 1.4 per cent in the first three weeks of April. 

Coal demand dropped over the fiscal year, the first year-on-year fall in deliveries in 2 decades. Demand for oil has been falling because the start of 2019, and has crashed during the period of national lockdown.

“We anticipated in 2019 that we might not see the same growth in CO2 emissions just how we’d observed in previous years in India. We thought they might drop significantly. That was without even knowing about the coronavirus,” said CREA analyst, Sunil Dahiya.

“The already declining rates of CO2 emissions, coupled with the coronavirus has resulted in this negative growth, that was not anticipated for India,” he added.

Whether India can sustain the negative growth of emissions, in the short or long term, will likely depend on the way the government responds through the economical recovery period post-pandemic, the CREA report explains. 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the other day a US$266 billion stimulus package to attempt to rehabilitate and reignite the Indian economy. It really is unclear if the bailout of coal power operators will be conditioned on green reforms or the restructuring of current power purchasing agreements, that could have a permanent impact on the energy sector. 

But the prospects of sector change are positive. And while Dahiya expects pollution levels to rebound, he's confident that the national energy trends, and the motivations of the government will prevent a go back to heavy polluting days. 

“India is at a juncture and this time will prompt a rethink into where our investments should be focused going forward. It is extremely, more than likely that India’s emissions increase but won’t get back to old emission levels,” he said.

INDIA AS A RENEWABLES POWERHOUSE

India has emerged as a force in the solar technology sector - it is the spearhead of the International Solar Alliance and today operates the world’s two major utility-scale solar parks. The country has a long-term target of 450GW of renewable energy by 2030, which 91GW has already been operational, with a further 50GW capacity under development.

Renewable energy plants have already been given “must run” status, essentially meaning they can not be shut off, a show of faith in the sector’s reliability.

“Despite having the crisis, the momentum in India’s renewable energy remains strong. If these targets are met India will ensure continued decrease in emissions,” said Kashish Shah, a study analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.

“India should rightly take pride in being able to execute world-leading renewable energy projects and continue to work to solve short-term policy impediments to obtaining its long-term renewable energy aspirations,” he wrote in a recently available report.

Already, the economics seem sensible for injecting more resources into clean technologies.  Shah estimates that up to US$700 billion of investment capital opportunities could possibly be unlocked once domestic policy headwinds are addressed. 

Meantime, operational charges for coal-powered generation is forecast to become higher and finally economically unviable, a trend occurring around the world. It puts at further risk controversial projects just like the mega Carmichael coal mine project planned by India’s Ardani Group near Australia’s vulnerable Great Barrier Reef.

“As yet, it’s made sense from an environmental and climate perspective. The only argument that had not been towards renewable energy was the monetary viability and scale - it being more costly than coal,” said Dahiya of CREA.

“Now in India we've reached a period where renewable energy is much, much cheaper than coal-based energy. The Indian government has realised this and that’s why they’re favouring really ambitious renewable energy targets.”

A man wears a mask to protect himself from the pollution as he rides a motorbike in Delhi, Nov 7, 2016. (File photo: Reuters/Cathal McNaughton)

The politics of pursuing a clean agenda has also never been clearer in India, as medical and environmental impacts of climate change continue to adversely impact the 1.35 billion-strong population. 

Hazy skies, cyclones, droughts and floods are regular events and expected to become incrementally more damaging provided that global action on climate remains inadequate.

This lockdown period could further mobilise civilians and empower them to demand cleaner air and comprehensive action, Dahiya says. 

Key obstacles are the enforcement of air standards and the twelve-monthly mass burnings from agriculture.

“Since 2015, the awareness from the public about what polluting of the environment is, what it could do to your health, and where it comes from has definitely grown,” he said.

“The fight for people’s rights to breathe is only going to strengthen after seeing this climate and blue skies. There’s no turning back."

India’s first-ever National CLIMATE Programme has non-enforceable targets to slash polluting of the environment across cities by up to 30 per cent by 2024. The united states remains the third-largest contributor of global carbon emissions.