Sole space carrier since 2011, Russia looking at huge losses as SpaceX succeeds
03 June, 2020
Russia has lost its long-held monopoly as the only country in a position to ferry astronauts to the International Space Station following flawless manned launch by US company SpaceX.
The Russian space agency congratulated the United States and Elon Musk’s SpaceX on the first crewed flight ever by an exclusive company, but professionals said the launch ought to be a wakeup call for Roscosmos.
“The success of the mission provides us with additional opportunities that will benefit the whole international programme,” cosmonaut Sergei Krikalev, Roscosmos executive director for crewed space programmes, said in a short video address.
Saturday’s launch was the to begin American astronauts from US soil because the mothballing of the united states shuttle programme in 2011 that left Russia’s more basic and reliable Soyuz spacecraft solely accountable for transporting crews.
Astronauts since then have all trained at Star City outside Moscow and studied Russian before blasting faraway from Baikonur launchpad in Kazakhstan.
“These flights have already been an unexpected opportunity for Moscow to keep making Soyuz and retain a substantial voice in negotiations over the ISS,” said Isabelle Sourbes-Verger, a expert in space policy at the French National Centre for Scientific Research.
The Russian space agency in addition has earned large sums by ferrying astronauts: a seat in the Soyuz costs NASA around $80 million.
If SpaceX starts taking on all US astronauts, “the gross annual losses could be a lot more than $200 million, a significant loss for Roscosmos’s budget of around $2 billion,” said Andrei Ionin, a specialist at the Tsiolkovsky Space Academy in Moscow.
While Musk, the ambitious entrepreneur behind SpaceX, has named the cost of a seat on his spacecraft as $60 million, Roscosmos chief Dmitry Rogozin has announced Russia is working to cut its price by thirty percent.
Ionin voiced scepticism over the program.
“SpaceX is saving money through the use of cheap engines and manufacturing virtually all its own parts,” he said. “To do this, Russia would need to change its production process.”
Another option is a barter system proposed by NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine: for each and every Russian riding in a US spaceship, one American would have a Soyuz.
‘Wakeup call’
In a broader sense, the looks of a rival such as SpaceX ought to be a “wakeup call” for the Russian space industry, which is “in far worse condition than those in control admit,” said Ionin.
A decade ago Russia was behind a sizable proportion of the world’s launches, but that's no longer the case today because of competition from China and SpaceX.
“When we were losing the launches market, Roscosmos said everything was fine because we were the only types sending persons up to the ISS. Now that fig leaf has fallen off.”
Russia’s space sector is marred by corruption, with multiple scandals over the construction of the brand new Vostochny launchpad in the Far East.
The country’s space industry in addition has failed to innovate, focusing on modifying “Soviet technology without any major evolution,” Ionin said.
The Russian space programme is renowned for having sent the first man into space in 1961 and launching the first satellite four years earlier, and its own achievements remain a major way to obtain national pride.
But recently it has endured a number of setbacks, notably losing expensive spacecraft and satellites recently.
The rise of private companies like SpaceX, which has ambitions to conquer Mars, risks leaving Russia irrecoverably far behind, authorities said.
Mars next?
For Russia to keep up, a government body independent of the space sector’s main players must develop a new strategy, Ionin said.
“US President (Donald) Trump reestablished a body-the National Space Council-to set policy goals. We have to do a similar thing.”
Some observers sense too little political will from President Vladimir Putin who is apparently more focused on using rocket science to build up military capabilities, particularly hypersonic missiles.
“For Putin, space exploration isn’t important when it comes to showing off the might of the state,” said independent space expert Vitaly Yegorov.
For Ionin, reinvigorating the Russian space programme requires international cooperation, too.
Sourbes-Verger suggested any manned international mission to Mars “could be a chance for Russia to regain its standing by sharing its skills.”
But, she said, the expenses of any such mission would be so high that China-now the world’s second space power when it comes to launches-would need to be included.
Yet that prospect seems unlikely, she added, given that “the US Congress refuses any space cooperation with China.”
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