US expected to stand ground on Taiwan, no matter who wins mid-term elections, say analysts
02 November, 2022
If the Democrats manage to retain both chambers of the US Congress, there would be continuity in the Biden administration’s policy on Taiwan, which leans towards status quo, said experts.
Taiwan is closely watching the upcoming US mid-term elections as the results will determine the direction of US policy on Taiwan, which may have implications for the island and cross-strait relations with China.
However, analysts said that both the Democrats and the Republicans are somewhat aligned in their stance towards Taiwan – the US is expected to stand its ground, and its policy is unlikely to see substantial changes regardless of the outcome of the mid-terms.
A Republican-controlled House and Senate, however, will likely see the US taking a tougher stance on China, and the increased tensions will spill over to cross-strait relations, experts said. “I think Beijing probably would be a little wary of a Republican House only because they think they're going to push the White House in other areas like technology or South China Sea, or other things that may encourage Beijing's wrath,” said Mr Sean King, senior vice president of consulting and lobbying firm Park Strategies.
“But on Taiwan itself, (Beijing) knows that the Democrats and Republicans are usually aligned on this issue. So I don't think you'll see much difference,” Mr King told CNA’s Asia First on Tuesday (Nov 1).
DEMOCRATS WANT STATUS QUO
The Democrats currently control both the House and the Senate. If they manage to retain both chambers of the US Congress, there would be continuity in the Biden administration’s policy on Taiwan, which leans towards status quo, said experts.
“The Democrats might want to protect Taiwan, but not to use Taiwan as a checker to the extent of provoking China,” said Associate Professor Huang Kwei-Bo from National Chengchi University’s College of International Affairs.
In the recent Taiwan Policy Act, the Senate - which is under Democratic control - at the request of the White House, removed provisions which were largely cosmetic but sure to anger Beijing, said Mr King. He noted that the Act kept substantial items such as arms sales and military financing.
The removed provisions included flying Taiwan’s flag and renaming its representative office in the US from the “Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office” to the “Taiwan Representative Office”, he said.
If the Republicans take control, however, they may not be willing to take out those minor issues so as to embarrass US President Joe Biden ahead of the 2024 election, Mr King added.
REPUBLICANS LIKELY TO TAKE TOUGHER STANCE
Although the Republicans are unlikely to make extensive changes to US’ policy on Taiwan, analysts said they are expected to push harder on certain issues, such as being less ambiguous and providing more weapons to the island.
The Republicans are also in favour of taking a firmer line on China, implicating Taiwan in the process, said Assoc Prof Huang.
“Republicans are likely to think Taiwan should act more boldly, so that it could become a checker that the US can use while competing against China. And (Taiwan) could be used as a checker that could ultimately win the game,” said Assoc Prof Huang.
“So if the Republicans win, they are bound to raise proposals in the Senate which may differ from Biden’s current policies.”
SENTIMENTS ON THE GROUND
Regular Taiwanese and residents on the island said they have been keeping a wary eye on escalating tensions and worsening cross-strait relations with China.
"Chinese President Xi (Jinping) has announced never to renounce the use of force on Taiwan. As long as he insists, it will remain our biggest threat,” a Taiwanese told CNA.
At the recently-concluded National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing, Mr Xi vowed to never renounce the use of force to reunify with Taiwan, despite China’s pledge to strive for the prospect of a peaceful reunification.
Tensions intensified in recent months following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in early August. China responded by launching its largest-ever military exercises around Taiwan, conducting blockade drills and firing ballistic missiles over the island.
“I think it became a lot more real, I mean the idea that there are missiles travelling over the island. And that one person’s decision could take the life that me and my family built over 20 years,” said Mr Gilmartin, an American who has been living in Taipei for the past two decades.
US-CHINA TENSIONS NOT EXPECTED TO EASE
US President Joe Biden has said on multiple occasions that the US would defend Taiwan in the event of an attack by China. However, official US policy does not commit Washington to defending Taiwan.
Political watchers said that US-China tensions, and by extension, cross-strait tensions, are not expected to ease no matter which party controls Congress.
Mr Andrew Yang, secretary general of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies think tank, said that while the US stressed it wants to maintain the status quo and will not perform any unilateral action to destroy the balance, that has not been the case.
“US policy towards China has changed dramatically, and the change includes Taiwan – such as US arms deals, US helping Taiwan to defend itself, and US urging Taiwan to increase its defence capability,” he said. “Of course in China’s point of view, the US intervenes too much in Taiwan’s affairs.”
US-China relations had been deteriorating even when former president Barack Obama was in office, said Mr King, adding that the pattern is expected to continue, with or without policy on Taiwan.
“There's a downward trajectory in the US-China relations regardless of Taiwan, and regardless of who’s in power,” said Mr King.
Source: www.channelnewsasia.com