Bangkok nightlife clusters expose Thailand's COVID-19 stumbles

When Thailand's transport minister was recently identified as having COVID-19, it had been Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha who got a headache.

Prayut had not been particularly lauded for his leadership this past year against the coronavirus, but for a lot of 2020, Thailand fought the condition to a standstill, with low infection and death rates envied by more developed countries.

Now, an outbreak at nightspots in the administrative centre Bangkok has sent new infections surging, suggesting the country might have been lulled right into a false sense of security before mass vaccinations begin.

On Wednesday, 1,335 new cases were confirmed, taking the full total to 35,910, with 97 deaths. 

While that is superior to almost every other countries, Thailand's cases in the first three months of this year were triple what the country had all of this past year and its own daily numbers are rising fast.

The brand new outbreak has spread among mostly young, affluent and mobile Thais, plus some of the newly infected had the more contagious variant first determined in the UK.

The federal government says Transport Minister Saksayam Chidchob caught the virus from an aide who patronised a few of the infectious nightspots, including a club described by Thai media as a glorified strip joint that was blatantly ignoring social distancing precautions. Which has added to widespread skepticism over the government's handling of the most recent crisis.

Thailand only recently commenced easing strict border controls that for days gone by year have kept out most travelers, especially all-important tourists whose spending supports an incredible number of jobs. The restrictions have included mandatory testing and 14-day quarantines for almost all arrivals.

Officials had appeared reluctant to impose sweeping restrictions like curfews, bans on serving alcohol and closures of bars, parks and shopping malls which were the rule this time around last year, when Songkran Thai New Year holidays were cancelled.

This week, the vacation went ahead, and as much as a million Thais headed out to visit family or crowded onto beaches, even as some hospitals halted COVID-19 testing because of a rush by thousands of folks worried that they had been exposed or needing proof these were virus-free. 

Some hospitals claimed to have go out of testing supplies, however the government said the real reason was an unintended consequence of a well-meaning regulation - they must admit infected patients immediately, but believed they lacked enough beds to support them.

Officials pivoted to allow referrals, and thousands of beds have filled up at field hospitals create to house people that have confirmed infections, following the government's protocol of isolating all known patients. 

Online photographs show exhausted medical staff in protective gear, slumped over sleeping on their desks and chairs.

A worst case scenario from the Department of Disease Control's epidemiology division calculated that without safety precautions, the country could see a maximum of 28,678 daily cases.

“The situation continues to be worrisome; more measures are to come,” Dr Opas Karnkavinpong, the department's director-general, warned Tuesday.

General Natthapon Nakpanich, businesses chief for the Center for COVID-19 Situation Administration, elaborated Wednesday, saying the federal government was considering instituting lockdowns in a number of areas after the holiday. 

They include Bangkok and its surrounding provinces, Prachuab Khiri Khan to the south, where in fact the resort town of Hua Hin is, the northern city of Chiang Mai, and elements of the Eastern Seaboard, where another popular holiday destination, Pattaya, is situated.

On Tuesday, the federal government raised eyebrows by posting photographs of soldiers spraying forest areas along the border, despite the fact that experts say the greatest virus risk is airborne.

The most recent crisis has made glaringly apparent an Achilles heel in Thailand’s strategy, failing to safe enough doses this season to inoculate a targeted 70 % of the populace believed necessary to achieve herd immunity.

So far, under 1 % of 69 million Thais have been vaccinated, a smaller proportion than in lots of of its Southeast Asian neighbours.

Thailand’s early success in containing the virus was exceptional given the millions of international travelers, especially from China, that it usually hosts each year. The first case outside China was a Chinese traveler whose fever was detected at Bangkok's airport.

It's unclear why Thailand and several other Southeast Asian nations succeeded in constraining the pandemic for much of last year. 

Thailand's comprehensive and experienced public health system played a sizable role, and Prayut’s government generally deferred to medical experts' advice.

However the nation has paid much price for its aggressive effort to control outbreaks: The economy contracted 6.1 % in 2020 and and the resurgence of cases makes a tourism recovery unlikely any time in the future. Household debt rose 42 % this past year as incomes fell or stalled, to 87 per cent of the country's GDP.

And Thailand’s lucky streak faded late last year, when a virus cluster was found among migrant staff employed in factories and seafood markets and surviving in crowded dormitories. 

Severe restrictions and an enormous testing campaign close to the outbreak's epicentre appeared to contain it after several weeks.

“We don’t want to lock down the whole country, because we really know what the issues are, so is it possible to all lock down yourselves?” Prayut said at that time. “This is up to everyone, if you don’t want to get infected just stay home for 14 to 15 days.”

That flare-up drew focus on the government’s vaccination plans just as the united states and European countries began doubling down on the inoculations.

In early January, Prayut said Thailand was trying to secure 63 million doses, which at two doses per person would cover not even half its population. Local production of the AstraZeneca vaccine is likely to begin in June.

Complaints emerged that well-connected companies might profit unfairly from government contracts to create and offer vaccines, allegations denied by the federal government and the firms involved. 

Prayut’s political opponents piled on, complaining about mismanagement, too little transparency and failing to diversify beyond the AstraZeneca and Chinese Sinovac vaccines.

Registration for vaccines for everyone is set to get started in early May, with inoculations to begin later in the month. 

So far, inoculations have mostly attended medical workers, areas considered at particularly risky, and communities which may be opened early as so-called bubbles where foreign tourists who've been vaccinated may be allowed to stay without undergoing quarantine.

On Tuesday, 793 persons got jabs, less than the quantity of new infections and off the recent pace of several thousand a day.