Fears that rogue scientists could engineer a fresh virus as devastating as Covid

The Covid-19 pandemic raised new fears for counter-terrorism experts: a virus just as devastating could possibly be deliberately unleashed on the world.

There exists a scenario where they use a war-game drill as a basis for emergency planning.

In the exercise, money is paid to rogue scientists to employ a level three biosecurity laboratory to build up a synthetically manipulated pathogen that's highly contaminating but low in toxicity, similar to Covid-19.

Using the same as a suicide bomber, the terrorists inject the pathogen into three victims around the Easter holidays. One would go to a refugee camp where it is passed on to aid personnel who later fly with their various home countries.

Another heads for a shopping centre in Johannesburg, South Africa, mingling with crowds, touching goods and doors. The 3rd comes with an EU passport and travels to a busy Alpine ski resort. With no early warning system in destination to detect biological attacks, it may be days or weeks before the virus is traced. The world is once again taken to its knees by a pandemic.

It is this sort of situation that institutions including the US Combating Terrorism Centre and other international government agencies need to consider because they evolve a new biosecurity technique for the post-Covid world.

“Suddenly biology and biosecurity isn’t the fringe thing that people need to worry about once in a while,” said Dr Drew Endy of Stanford University. “The threat landscape including bioterror is increasingly dynamic.”

His views are echoed by Lt Michael Nagata, former head of US Special Operations Command, who believes that “the probability of a future terrorist by using a highly potent, clandestinely produced, difficult to detect, transportable and dispersible, and quite lethal biological weapon is rising significantly”.

Analysts at the Combating Terrorism Centre believe rogue states and terrorists observed with interest what sort of highly transmissible however, not especially virulent pathogen has already established a devastating global effect.

Subsequently, there is growing concern that rogue scientists may potentially engineer viruses through the use of new methods in synthetic biology. The advances in synbio mean that an extremely dangerous virus can now be manipulated relatively simply.

“You don't have to be considered a Cambridge PhD, or have a laboratory like Porton Down to do that today,” said Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former commander of Britain’s chemical and biological weapons regiment.

While the mutated British Covid strain is almost certainly the virus naturally evolving, there is a concern that rogue scientists could especially target Covid-19 by manipulating its DNA.

“With synthetic biology it’s much simpler to manipulate a virus and its own pathogens. It is not beyond the realms of likelihood and it has to be taken seriously with regards to biosecurity,” he said.

There are around one million scientists worldwide who are capable of manipulating pathogens and it could require only a fraction to carefully turn rogue to build up a biological weapon.

“The risk of a future destructive biological attack or another devastating global pandemic should no longer be observed as low. There should no higher priority for the international community than biosecurity,’’ Mr de Bretton-Gordon said.

Dr Endy, a specialist in bioengineering, said that countries that desire to become nuclear powers, such as for example Iran, might instead turn to bioweapons as a form of leverage.

“Suddenly, you don’t need the isotope centrifuges. Learning to be a biopower is relatively affordable as a state-level programme and it’s hard to find or thwart,” he told the CTC. “We might be stumbling right into a near future where suddenly geopolitics plays out in new ways and the nuclear powers, that have entrenched themselves in a geopolitical position of privilege, end up being outmanoeuvred by biopowers. It’s absolutely horrifying.”

Another concern may be the huge reduction in the price tag on printing DNA that allow a virus genome to be made today for $300 whereas 15 years back it could have cost $120,000.

Scientists in Switzerland have recreated the Spanish flu vaccine and in 2016 three scientists in Canada built the horse pox virus genome.

There have been some disparaging responses in 2017 when Bill Gates said that within a decade the world may possibly experience a bio-terrorism attack killing more than 30 million persons with a fast-moving airborne pathogen. While Covid-19 isn't a terrorist attack it has recently taken almost two million lives and infected more than 75 million.

Experts now believe with significantly less than $10,000 and a few rogue scientists creating their own pathogenic agents, Mr Gates’ prediction could turn into a reality.

Additionally, there are concerns that criminals might attempt to target the an incredible number of vaccines now being manufactured by major drugs companies. In Britain, you will find a suggestion that the army could be used to distribute and protect the AstraZeneca vaccine after it really is approved by regulators.

With the Pfizer drug poised for approval by EU regulators, Interpol chiefs are predicting a “dramatic” rise in crime around the vaccines. “This is something persons desperately want so there exists a value to it,” r de Bretton-Gordon said.

“The security of it really is key, so it goes to the proper people, to make certain that the wrong people don’t obtain it and manipulate the vaccine.”

The biosecurity expert can be contacting governments to get together to develop better quality medical countermeasures. “A much greater amount of domestic manufacturing and offer of [countermeasures], including personal protective equipment and medical equipment such as for example ventilators, is vital,” he said.

An early warning system is essential to avoid a pandemic and the US Department of State is in discussions to build up the one that would trigger lockdowns to contain outbreaks. The machine would monitor level three and four biolabs, highlighting leaks, thefts and accidents, and would also track social media to pick up signals such as 20 persons being admitted to hospital with the same infection.

Stronger oversight and surveillance can be required of the estimated 3,000 level three biolabs all over the world - some in rogue or failing states - all of which are capable of making pathogens.

“Advances in synthetic biology are transforming the potential threat posed by engineered pathogens, creating growing concern over biological attacks and bio terror,” Mr de Bretton-Gordon said.

It's been reported that ISIS tried its hand at creating a bioweapon with the plague virus and plant it into a refugee camp. Additionally it is understood that the terrorists previously recruited a North African biochemist to work for them on biological weapons.

In security networks, you will find a suggestion a bio attack is ISIS’s intent.

“There are rumours that they are seeing what they are able to do in light of how Covid has taken the world to its knees,” said a western security source. “If you wish to create ultimate terror you then know that is now the best terror piece.”